Across the bustling little military and retirement community of Fountain, there is anticipation.

It has grown for years, since the Army announced in 2005 that neighboring Fort Carson would become the new home of the 4th Infantry Division from Fort Hood, Texas, adding 6,500 soldiers to the region.

It has been fueled by the development of a new retail corridor along Mesa Ridge Parkway, which civic leaders view as a magnet for new residents and a gold mine for generating more tax revenue.

And it bubbles as construction crews expand Gate 20, the eastern entrance to Fort Carson, and rebuild an interchange at Interstate 25, creating easier access to Fountain for soldiers considering living here.

All this anticipation has civic leaders, business owners and economists speculating about whether Fountain should brace for a boom in business and population.

The early signs are promising. Since Memorial Day, new soldiers have processed in at Fort Carson at a rate of about 100 a day. To solve their need for immediate housing, many have grabbed apartments and single-family rental houses in Fountain, slashing the town’s vacancy rate.

But they’re not buying, at least not yet.

“The only impact our office has seen is in rentals,” said Darrell Greene, of Snare Realty Co.

Economists, real estate professionals and longtime residents say it’s too early to tell whether the Fort Carson expansion will detonate an explosion in real estate sales and boost business for local merchants.

It depends, the experts say, on factors beyond their control, including how confident the new troops feel about their new assignment and about future deployments to Afghanistan and other world hot spots, and how soon credit markets thaw and the nation’s economy recovers.

“They are coming in here temporarily, thinking they are going to be shipped out, so they are not looking long-term yet,” said Green, who has sold real estate in Fountain since 1980.

Despite slow sales, the rental activity is a good start, the experts agree, especially considering how high the apartment-vacancy rate has been in the Fountain Valley, which includes the unincorporated communities of Security and Widefield.

A study for the Colorado Division of Housing shows the vacancy rate had dropped to 16.2 percent in the second quarter of 2009, compared with 23.3 percent for the same period in 2008.

“That’s still fairly high, but it is improving,” said economist Tom Binnings, of Summit Economics.

At Fountain City Hall, officials say anecdotal evidence tells them the rate will be significantly lower for the third quarter.

That’s quite a change from the past five years or so. With repeated troop deployments, many young military families relocated closer to their homes, leaving Fountain with boarded-up apartments. Many houses also went into foreclosure during the mortgage meltdown of the past few years.

A study done for the Pikes Peak Area Council of Governments illustrates well what Fountain and the valley have experienced.

In 2001, the Fountain Valley’s apartment-vacancy rate was the lowest in the region, at 2.3 percent. By 2006, it had soared to 27.6 percent —  far beyond seven other regions in the study area. Apartment-vacancy rates in the rest of the Colorado Springs area hovered in the 10 percent to 18 percent range, according to the study by BBC Research & Consulting.

The Fountain rate peaked at 28.8 percent in the first quarter of 2009, before the influx of soldiers from Fort Hood and the return of other soldiers from their latest tours in Iraq.

“Vacant rental houses are gone,” said Lisa Cochrun, Fountain’s economic development director and executive director of the Fountain Urban Renewal Authority. “It’s a direct result of the Fort Carson expansion.”

The spike in rental activity is nice, but the real money is in housing sales and new housing starts. And no one knows if, or when, that might occur.

Fountain’s real estate market was booming in 2000-01, said Fred Crowley, an economist with the Southern Colorado Economic Forum at the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs.

“They captured 8 to 10 percent of all housing permits in the county. And home sizes more than doubled. They weren’t just building homes. They were building nice homes – 3,000 to 3,500 square feet,” he said.

Then came the terrorist attacks in 2001, and multiple troop deployments interrupted the growth spurt. That was followed by the nationwide mortgage/foreclosure crisis and recession.

But experts seem to agree that Fountain is poised for another growth spurt.

“They have a competitive price edge,” Crowley said, noting that land there is cheaper than in Colorado Springs, and Fountain has plenty of room to grow.

Plus, he said, a desire to live near work, shop on post and access its recreational opportunities, and send kids to good schools all conspire in Fountain’s favor.

The key is for Fountain to get the infrastructure — water lines, sewers, electrical service — in place before the new troops start buying houses. When they do, it will be a bonanza because a survey shows that more than 60 percent of the new troops will live off base and eventually many will buy homes.

“Say 15 percent buy a home; Fountain is probably looking at 250 to 400 new homes to accommodate the military population,” Crowley said. That is an enormous potential impact.”

People such as Cochrun are working to make that happen, and for her, anticipation is high but offset by frustration.

“The economy is getting in the way,” she said. “We’ve got excellent access to I-25. We’ve got a growing community in its own trade area, not a suburb to Colorado Springs. We have demand for a greater depth and breadth of retail and entertainment venues. People here want more amenities and services.”

Not only does the demand exist, Cochrun said, but the retail world recognizes it.

“A lot of retailers want to come,” she said. “People would like to expand. And cities live and die on retail.

“But construction is stalled. Capital markets are frozen. It is frustrating.”

Still, she is optimistic that things will take off once the nation’s economy recovers. Already, work has resumed on a townhome project that sat in foreclosure for nearly three years. And there is a list of projects, already approved, that will break ground when financial conditions improve.

Others in Fountain share her optimism.

“We’ll definitely benefit,” said Jim Coke, owner of Coke’s Diner in downtown Fountain.

But Coke doesn’t expect his diner to fill up with soldiers and their families. The downtown core is mostly longtime residents and retired military. He expects the real windfall to occur along the new retail corridor outside Gate 20.

“Up on Mesa Ridge they’ll see a lot of troops,” Coke said. We’ll get a few in mainstream Fountain.”

Others have predicted booms in the past, and while Fountain did experience explosive growth the past 10 years at 5.6 percent, according to U.S. Census data, it remains a town of about 22,000, with a country flavor.

Gradually, however, it is starting to resemble the suburbs rimming Colorado Springs, with newer subdivisions, townhomes and apartments catering to the ever-expanding military influence.

But Greene isn’t too concerned and expects the big changes to be confined mostly to the new north retail corridor. And it won’t happen too fast, he predicts.

He likens it to the weather.

“I don’t think it’s like a cloudburst,” Greene said. “It will be more like a gentle rain and will form into a thunderstorm.”